A new study shows that the hole in the ozone layer is recovering, and experts expect it’s well on its way to be fully healed by 2066. Scientists first discovered the growing hole over Antarctica in the 1980s. The depletion allowed UV rays to filter down to the Earth’s surface, leading to adverse health effects and skin cancer, among other potential negative effects. Worries soon spread that additional harmful ultraviolet radiations could cause damage to crucial materials and ecosystems alike because the ozone layer is a natural protective surface over the Earth, keeping us safe from ultraviolet rays.
When we think of this layer as a sunscreen that protects both the planet and us from ultraviolet radiation, there’s no doubt about its importance to our overall survival. However, new results from an MIT-led study show with high statistical confidence that green energy transition efforts by multiple countries and emission cuts are helping the ozone heal. And experts are optimistic about the current rate of recovery.
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How is the Ozone Layer Healing?
This development shows the power of human action against environmental issues. Quite simply, we have managed to help the ozone recover by reducing ozone-depleting substances. This has been far more effective than addressing other influences like increased greenhouse gas emissions and natural weather variability,
United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated, “The ozone layer is healing. This achievement reminds us that when nations heed the warnings of science, progress is possible.”
Much of the recovery is also attributed to results of the international treaty called the Montreal Protocol, which began in 1987 and pushed for phasing down man-made chemicals like chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).
At the time, CFCs were chemicals commonly found in things like air conditions, refrigeration, insulation, and aerosols. The theory was that CFCs drifting up into the stratosphere combined with certain seasonal conditions could break down the ozone.
Starting in 2016, studies reported signs of recovery. Experts believed the hole seemed to begin shrinking each year. But the observations were qualitative, with large uncertainties in whether or not our efforts to reduce ozone-depleting substances made any direct effect or if the shrinking hole could be due to other factors.
The “Fingerprinting” Method
But the new study took on a more quantitative approach to find the cause of the recovery over Antarctica. Researchers used a method called fingerprinting, often used to look at climate change, to isolate the influence of specific factors rather than natural changes.
By applying the fingerprinting method, they found proof of the human effect on helping the ozone layer recover.
They first ran multiple simulations of the Earth’s atmosphere under various conditions, like one in which there was no increase in ozone-depleting substances or greenhouse gases. This helped researchers gauge natural weather variability, or the ongoing fluctuations that take place in the climate over time and cause changes in things like precipitation and temperature. Next, they ran simulations where only greenhouse gases increased, or where only ozone-depleting substances decreased.
By comparing the results of these simulations, researchers were able to zero in on which factor could alter the ozone in the Antarctic. They mapped out the ozone recovery from month to month over various altitudes and seasons to identify the “fingerprint” or pattern of recovery due to declining ozone-depleting substances over several decades.
Finally, the team compared this fingerprint to satellite images of the ozone hole over Antarctica from 2005 to today. The results showed the ozone recovery was mainly due to reductions in ozone-depleting substances with 95 percent certainty.
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Optimism about Full Recovery Within 40 Years
Lead author of the study, Peidong Wang from the Solomon group in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS), says, “After 15 years of observational records, we see this signal to noise with 95 percent confidence, suggesting there’s only a very small chance that the observed pattern similarity can be explained by variability noise. This gives us confidence in the fingerprint. It also gives us confidence that we can solve environmental problems. What we can learn from ozone studies is how different countries can swiftly follow these treaties to decrease emissions.”
Experts predict the ozone layer will fully recover and return to the levels it was in the 1980s within the next 40 years, with healing spreading over the Arctic by 2045 and over the rest of the world by 2040.
And even better, the National Science Foundation and NASA support the research findings.
If this trend continues, experts anticipate there will soon be a year here and there where the ozone layer remains entirely intact and the hold should remain closed for good.
All in all, this is amazing news! Not only could we see a year with no ozone depletion by 2035 in the Antarctic, some of us may even see the ozone hole completely disappear in our lifetimes. And it’s all thanks to people — to our united efforts to correct the problem.
This proves that together, we really can make a big difference in the world if we only try.
Featured image by Nopparuj Lamaikul, via Unsplash