Scientists believe that at least eight massive earthquakes have occurred in California over the past 3,000 years. These have occurred along the San Andreas Fault, and the Cascadia Subduction zone. Furthermore, it’s likely that these significant earthquakes have happened within a decade or two of significant quakes happening in the region. Since early November, over 300 earthquakes have shaken the San Francisco Bay area. This startling increase in activity leads residents to believe that the “Big One” may be just around the corner.
What is the “Big One”?
The first quake that rattled the East Bay on November 9th was a 3.8 magnitude one, while the one that struck this morning registered at 2.7. While these magnitudes aren’t big enough to cause severe damage, the sheer number of quakes in the region recently is worrying residents and researchers alike. The region has experienced non-stop tremors for over six weeks now, leading people to believe that a devastating quake may be just around the corner.
In 1906, a 7.9 magnitude earthquake ravaged San Francisco. It destroyed over 80 percent of the city, and left thousands of people dead.
The “small swarms” that have been occurring are likely indicative of a much larger quake happening in the foreseeable future. Scientists from the US Geological Survey (USGS) believe that there’s an over 70 percent chance of a quake over 6.5 in magnitude hitting the area by 2043, with high chances that it will be well above 7.5. In fact, there’s also a 7 percent chance that the quake will be above 8.0. This is the “Big One” that residents have been worried about for over a century now.
If the two fault systems quake simultaneously, the effect could be utterly disastrous.
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Recent Earthquakes Indicate that a Significant Event is Coming
In addition to the quake clusters happening in California, seismic activity has been ramping up worldwide. Two earthquakes registering over 7.0 occurred in Japan and Alaska in early December. This morning, a 6.5 magnitude quake occurred 42 km NNE of Goroka, Papua New Guinea, and a few days ago there was a 5.2 quake in the North Pacific Ocean near Sakhalin Oblast, Russia.
All of this activity points to a much larger event happening in the foreseeable future.
Unfortunately, the planet isn’t giving us a firm date of when the “Big One” may strike. Annemarie Baltay, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, said: “There’s gonna be a big earthquake in the Bay Area. We just can’t say exactly when and where. So you should be prepared for that.”
It’s Best to Be Prepared
If and when the “Big One” does occur, millions of people will be affected. In addition to buildings being destroyed, infrastructure will far apart and many people will lose access to things like clean water, food, gas, and electricity. Furthermore, medical care may not be immediately available due to road damage, as well as facility overload. As such, it’s important to prepare for the worst, even if it doesn’t happen.
It’s far better to have emergency items prepared and not need them, than need them and not have them at hand.
Survival experts advise people to have at least two week’s worth of emergency supplies for every family member, including pets. This includes food, water, medication, sleeping bags, tents, and both hygiene and first aid supplies. Aim to have a “bug-out bag” packed for each individual, and include physical money as well as emergency contact lists.
The “Big One” may not occur within our lifetime, but if it does, you’ll be prepared for it.
Featured image by John Morgan, via Flickr, Creative Commons license 2.0