Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 34 counts of falsification of business records in the first degree, which is a felony in New York. He pleaded not guilty when he was arraigned last year.
Trump’s conviction in New York stemmed from a $130,000 “hush money” payment his attorney Michael Cohen made to adult film star Stormy Daniels in the days before the 2016 election. Prosecutors said the deal was meant to keep voters in the dark about Daniels’ allegation that she had sex with Trump years earlier, which he denies.
But the actual charges that Trump faced were far less sensational and dealt with the comparatively mundane paperwork that was generated when he reimbursed Cohen for the payment.
In 2017, Cohen and Allen Weisselberg, an executive at the Trump Organization, reached an agreement about how Cohen would be repaid for the $130,000 that he sent to Daniels in exchange for her silence.
Trump’s lawyers argued that the payments to Cohen were for his work as Trump’s attorney, not reimbursements for the Daniels payment
The falsifying business records charges carry up to four years behind bars, though prosecutors have not said whether they intend to seek imprisonment, and it is not clear whether the judge would impose that punishment.
As a convicted felon, Trump cannot vote and has lost his second amendment right to bear arms. However, the conviction, and even imprisonment, will not bar Trump from continuing his pursuit of the White House.
“This was a rigged, disgraceful trial,” Trump told reporters after leaving the courtroom. “The real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people. They know what happened, and everyone knows what happened here.”
Trump faces three other felony indictments, but the New York case may be the only one to reach a conclusion before the November election, highlighting its significance. While the legal and historical implications of the verdict are clear, its political consequences are less certain, potentially reinforcing rather than changing entrenched opinions about Trump.
According to at least one poll, over half of voters (54%) approve of the 12 jurors’ historic decision to convict Trump. A similar share believes Trump committed a crime.
However, Trump’s campaign argued before the verdict that the outcome, regardless of the jury’s decision, was unlikely to sway voters and that issues like inflation would instead determine the election.
For another candidate at another time, a criminal conviction might doom a presidential run. However, Trump’s political career has weathered two impeachments, allegations of sexual abuse, investigations into potential ties to Russia, attempts to overturn an election, and salacious personal scandals, including an infamous recording where he boasted about grabbing women’s genitals.
Voters have known about the general allegations in this case for years. While sordid, they are often viewed as less severe than the allegations in his other cases, which accuse him of subverting American democracy and mishandling national security secrets.
Just 15% of Republican voters nationwide want Trump to drop his White House bid, a bit higher than the 8% of Trump supporters who said the same.
Roughly half of voters said they would oppose the former president’s imprisonment for his 34 class E felonies. The most popular option (at 69%) would be fining Trump, followed by another 49% who would put him on probation.
Some experts maintain that the easiest way for Trump’s conviction to be reversed is to claim that the jury’s instructions were flawed. In this case, the jurors were not required to arrive at a unanimous decision on the main charge, which experts claim could be considered flawed. They also point to the fact that there was no crime victim in this case, which could help Trump in an appellate court.
Even so, the verdict is likely to give President Joe Biden and fellow Democrats an opportunity to argue that Trump is unfit for office. At the same time, the decision will also allow Trump to bolster his claims of being victimized by a politically motivated criminal justice system.