Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, was rocked by explosions on Monday as Ukrainian air defenses intercepted incoming Russian missiles and drones during a massive aerial bombardment across the country.
Ukraine’s air force said it detected dozens of missiles and drones targeting almost all regions of the country, from the frontline eastern regions of Kharkiv and Dnipro to the southern port city of Odessa, as well as Kyiv.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia had launched “more than 100 missiles of various types and about 100 [attack] drones.”
Ukraine had been bracing for a major Russian attack for weeks, in response to Kyiv’s shock incursion into the border region of Kursk – the first foreign invasion of Russia since World War II..
Although Kyiv’s Western allies have provided Ukraine with vast amounts of military equipment, they have placed strict conditions on how this can be used. Fearing Russian escalation, Western countries have prohibited Ukraine from using the weapons it has been given to strike missile and drone launch sites deep inside Russia, meaning Kyiv has to rely mostly on its air defenses to stem Moscow’s attacks.
Ukraine has pleaded with the UK, US and France to be able to use various types of advanced missiles inside Russia, but so far these countries have maintained their position that the weapons should be used only inside the borders of Ukraine.
Slamming these countries, Zelenskyy said “America, Britain and France, other partners have the power” to stop Russia’s aerial attacks.
The conflict, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and escalated dramatically with Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, has reached a new phase marked by increased cross-border operations and sustained, intense warfare.
Recent developments, including Ukrainian incursions into Russian territory and Russia’s missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, illustrate the evolving and complex nature of this conflict.
The recent Ukrainian incursions into Russia signify a notable shift in Kyiv’s strategy. These incursions, though limited in scale, are symbolic and strategic. They demonstrate Ukraine’s growing confidence and capability to take the fight beyond its borders, potentially aiming to strain Russian military resources, disrupt supply lines, and shift the psychological burden of war onto the Russian population.
On the other hand, Russia’s missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, often targeting civilian infrastructure, underscore its strategy of attrition. These attacks aim to weaken Ukrainian morale, disrupt daily life, and exhaust Ukraine’s economic and military resources.
These developments indicate a deepening of the conflict, with both sides engaging in actions that increase the risk of escalation. Ukraine’s incursions signal that it is no longer merely defending its territory but is also seeking to take proactive measures that may alter the strategic calculus in Moscow. Russia’s continued missile strikes, however, demonstrate that it remains committed to a strategy of destruction and intimidation, despite significant military setbacks on the ground.
Where is the conflict heading?
The conflict is likely to persist into a protracted war of attrition unless significant changes occur on the battlefield or in the political landscape. Both sides appear entrenched in their positions, with neither willing to compromise on core objectives—Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and Russia’s desire to control Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation.
Several potential scenarios could influence the trajectory of the conflict.
The most likely near-term scenario is a prolonged stalemate, where neither side achieves a decisive victory, and the frontlines become increasingly static. This could lead to a “frozen conflict” similar to other post-Soviet disputes, where active fighting diminishes but a formal resolution remains elusive.
If Ukraine can mount a successful counteroffensive, reclaiming significant territory, it may force Russia to reconsider its position, possibly leading to negotiations. However, this would require continued and possibly increased Western military support.
Conversely, if Russia decides to escalate further, either through more aggressive military tactics or even limited use of unconventional weapons, the conflict could spiral into a broader regional war, drawing in more external powers and increasing the stakes significantly.
A significant, though less predictable, factor is the potential for political change within Russia. If the war becomes increasingly unpopular and leads to significant internal dissent, it could force the Kremlin to seek an exit strategy.
What will bring about the end?
The conflict is unlikely to end through military means alone. A political solution will eventually be necessary, but it will only be viable when both sides feel that they have exhausted their military options or when the costs of continuing the war become unsustainable. For this to happen, several conditions need to be met.
Both sides need to reach a point where they recognize that further military action will not achieve their objectives. This could result from a stalemate or significant external pressure.
A credible and sustained diplomatic effort, potentially mediated by a neutral third party, will be essential to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table. This could be initiated through back-channel communications or formal international mediation.
Any resolution will require robust security guarantees for Ukraine, ensuring that it does not face future aggression. This could involve a combination of international security guarantees and potentially the deployment of peacekeeping forces.
For Russia, incentives may be necessary to make a negotiated settlement more palatable. This could involve phased sanctions relief, economic assistance for rebuilding, or guarantees regarding Russia’s own security concerns.
What should western governments be doing?
Western governments have a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the conflict. Their actions should focus on several key areas.
Continued military aid to Ukraine is essential to maintain its defense capabilities and support any potential counteroffensive. This includes providing advanced weaponry, intelligence support, and training.
Western governments should increase economic and humanitarian support to Ukraine to help it withstand the economic pressures of the war and address the needs of its civilian population.
While supporting Ukraine, Western governments should also be actively pursuing diplomatic channels to explore the possibilities for a negotiated settlement. This includes engaging with neutral or non-aligned countries that may have influence over Russia.
Maintaining and potentially escalating economic sanctions on Russia is crucial to weakening its war effort. However, these sanctions should be carefully calibrated to avoid unnecessary escalation and to leave room for negotiation.
Western governments should prepare for a long-term commitment to Ukraine, including post-war reconstruction efforts, integration into European institutions, and continued defense support.
Western leaders must also engage in strategic communication, both domestically and internationally, to maintain public support for Ukraine and to counter Russian propaganda efforts.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a dangerous and unpredictable confrontation with profound implications for European and global security. The recent intensification of military actions indicates that both sides are preparing for a long struggle.
While a military solution appears unlikely, a combination of sustained military pressure on Russia, robust support for Ukraine, and a credible diplomatic strategy may eventually bring about an end to the conflict. Western governments must remain united, strategic, and flexible in their approach to navigate the complexities of this ongoing war.