After months of fighting, Russia has gained control of Avdiivka, a town in eastern Donetsk, shortly after Ukrainian forces rapidly withdrew from the destroyed town they had defended for ten years. However, the Ukrainian military faces challenges at multiple points along the extensive frontline, which stretches roughly 1,000 kilometers from the northern border with Russia to the Black Sea.
The Russian forces appear to have identified a moment of weakness in their opponent. After two years of continuous fighting, Ukraine’s elite units are depleted; there’s a change in leadership with Oleksandr Syrskyi taking over as commander-in-chief; and Ukrainian forces are dealing with a shortage of ammunition and are susceptible to constant aerial bombardment.
Although President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian military aim to reclaim all territories unlawfully occupied, they are currently focused on stopping Russian advances beyond the nearly 18% of Ukraine they already control.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s official goal is to capture the entire eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk. However, many are skeptical that he will halt his campaign should further opportunities arise.
The Russians initiated an aggressive campaign to take Avdiivka in October, and their offensive operations extend near Bakhmut and Mariinka (also in Donetsk), as well as towards Kupiansk in the north.
On the southern front, in Zaporizhzhia, both Russian and Ukrainian reports indicate a significant Russian military buildup in the region where Ukraine attempted a counter-offensive last summer. Analysts suggest that a force of 50,000 troops has been gathered there.
Ukraine has initiated an investigation into claims that Russian forces executed eight unarmed Ukrainian soldiers following their takeover of Avdiivka. The Security Service of Ukraine, with the Donetsk Regional Prosecutor’s Office overseeing, is conducting a pre-trial investigation into these alleged war crimes, including premeditated murder, as reported by Ukrinform. Evidence, including a video on Telegram showing a Russian soldier executing two Ukrainian prisoners at close range, supports these allegations. Moscow has yet to respond to these accusations.
This inquiry comes amid ongoing accusations from Ukraine of Russian war crimes since the invasion began in February 2022, with reciprocal allegations from Russia. The capture of Avdiivka, marked as Moscow’s significant advance since Bakhmut, was declared by Russia and celebrated by Putin as “an important victory” in the conflict. Following this, Ukrainian military reported Russian attempts to expand their control west of Avdiivka, including attacks on Lastochkyne. These developments occur as Ukrainian forces face ammunition shortages, a situation the U.S. blames on delayed military aid by Congress.
At the same time, Ukraine says it shot down four Russian fighter jets on the eastern front this weekend.
In the face of challenging conditions on the frontlines for Ukrainian forces, Russia is experiencing a significantly high rate of casualties. Zelensky highlighted recently that for every Ukrainian soldier lost in Avdiivka, seven Russian soldiers are being killed. The Ukrainian military has reported causing significant Russian losses in the region stretching from Avdiivka to western Zaporizhzhia, including 20,018 personnel, 199 tanks, and 481 armored combat vehicles between January 1 and February 15. Although these figures are unverified, U.S. officials have noted that Russian forces are incurring heavy casualties due to ineffective tactics. Traditionally, Russia has compensated for losses by deploying large numbers of troops, benefiting from a more substantial military manpower pool compared to Ukraine.
Currently, Ukraine’s deficit in weapons and ammunition, exacerbated by the U.S. Congress’ failure to approve a $60 billion aid package, has allowed Russia to leverage its significant advantages in artillery, armor, and air power.
US President Joe Biden has assured Zelensky of a forthcoming $60 billion in military aid, pending a final congressional vote. Biden expressed confidence in the approval of the aid, responding to Zelensky’s urgent request for additional weapons to prevent a dire situation in Europe. The US attributed Ukraine’s retreat from Avdiivka to insufficient Congressional support, highlighting the strategic importance of Avdiivka as a key to the Russian-held regional capital in Donetsk. This retreat marks Russia’s significant advancement since capturing Bakhmut in May.
The White House criticized Congressional delay, noting Ukrainian forces had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies. The US Senate recently passed a $95 billion foreign aid package, including $60 billion for Ukraine, amidst political challenges. It now faces obstacles in the House of Representatives, with division among Republicans. Biden, emphasizing the bravery of Ukrainian forces and the absurdity of withholding support, committed to ensuring Ukraine receives the necessary ammunition and defensive capabilities.