ISIS has claimed responsibility for two deadly explosions near Qasem Soleimani’s burial site in Kerman, Iran. The blasts, occurring on the anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination, resulted in at least 84 deaths and 284 injuries, marking Iran’s most fatal incident since the 1979 revolution. ISIS stated that two suicide bombers targeted Shiite mourners, a group they view as heretical. However, their narrative and reported casualty numbers differ from Iranian reports. Iran has yet to respond to ISIS’s claims. The blasts took place one after the next, with the second occurring a few minutes after as people aided the injured from the first – a common tactic among terrorists and suicide bombers.
The attack in Iran occurred just shortly after the recent attack in Beirut, which resulted in the deaths of top Hamas officials. Among the casualties was Saleh al-Arouri, a notable figure within Hamas and deputy to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Al-Arouri, formerly a leader in the Qassam Brigades and a member of Hamas’ political bureau, played a key role in coordinating the group’s military and political endeavors outside Gaza, including securing support. His popularity, especially in Fatah-dominated areas of Palestine, was significant.
The Beirut apartment destroyed in the allegedly Israeli attack that killed Arouri was being used by Hamas for the first time since the terror group vacated it ahead of its Oct. 7. attack on Israel, the Lebanese Al-Akhbar news outlet reported. Arouri had just returned after spending several weeks in Qatar and Turkey, Al-Akhbar reported.
Also this week, a U.S. airstrike targeted the logistical headquarters of an Iran-backed militia in central Baghdad, resulting in the death of Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, a high-ranking commander of the militia. The strike intensifies existing regional tensions heightened by the Israel-Hamas conflict and coincides with Iraqi efforts to encourage the withdrawal of US-led coalition forces. The Popular Mobilization Force, an umbrella of militias under nominal Iraqi military control, condemned the attack as “brutal American aggression.”
All of these events will have a significant impact across the Middle East. Each incident on its own has reignited tensions and fears of escalating conflict. Having occurred in the span of just a few days, they suggest a major conflagration could be forthcoming.
Al-Arouri, who had lived outside the West Bank for many years, had established his own international contacts and networks in Turkey and Lebanon. Israel was likely aware of his capabilities and possibly his undisclosed plans, especially given his frequent interactions with Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah and Iranian representatives in south Beirut.
The timing of his assassination raises questions. Israel was aware of his 2015 move to Beirut, yet he was not targeted until recently, suggesting a change in Israeli strategy. Despite the ongoing conflict in Gaza and potential for Hezbollah to open a second front, Israel demobilized some forces after months of calm in the north, indicating a shift in focus.
The reaction of Hezbollah and Iran to this incident is crucial. A high-ranking Iranian delegation, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals, visited Beirut, and Nasrallah’s speech cancellation followed by a recorded address suggests strategic deliberations are underway with Iran about how to retaliate.
The attack by Hezbollah on Israel on October 8, the day after Hamas’ attack in Israel, has unintentionally involved Lebanon in the conflict between Israel and Palestinian factions in Gaza. The Beirut strike, which also killed two other Hamas commanders and four fighters, puts Hezbollah in a complex position, balancing its Resistance Axis obligations with Lebanese political and social dynamics.
Arouri, serving as Hamas’ deputy chairman since 2017, was a critical figure in coordinating anti-Israel efforts and was seen as a significant target by Israel. His assassination was anticipated following Israeli cabinet leaks suggesting targeted killings of senior militants. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned of strong reactions to any assassinations in Lebanon, highlighting the importance of maintaining current engagement rules with Israel.
Hezbollah’s statement post-assassination condemned the Israeli strike as an aggression against Lebanon, indicating a likely response. Nasrallah’s subsequent address reaffirmed Hezbollah’s stance but did not specify concrete actions. Hezbollah’s response must consider Lebanon’s economic crisis and political deadlock, balancing the need for popular support with its Resistance Axis duties.
Since October 7, Hezbollah has escalated attacks against Israel, demonstrating its capability and readiness to confront Israel. This brinksmanship aims to disrupt Israel and impose a premature ceasefire in Gaza. However, Hezbollah is unlikely to pursue a full-scale war against Israel, given its constraints within Lebanon. The group might temporarily intensify attacks on northern Israel or use indirect methods, such as outsourcing attacks to Palestinian organizations, to continue its opposition without triggering a broader conflict.
For its part, Iran has vowed to avenge the ISIS attacks that took place near Suleimani’s grave. “A very strong retaliation will be meted out to them by the hands of the soldiers of Soleimani,” Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber told reporters in Kerman.
With Hezbollah seeking revenge on Israel, and Iran seeking revenge on ISIS, these events could tie the various arenas in the Middle East into a knot and complicate everything to the point that an all-out war breaks out.