Khamenei’s severe miscalculation, Israel’s devastating strikes and Iran’s retaliation

Ayatollah Khamenei
Israel’s decision to launch “Rising Lion” was rooted in years of mounting concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and its broader regional aggression.

On June 13, Israel launched a series of preemptive airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities and military infrastructure, an operation dubbed “Rising Lion.” This dramatic escalation, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions and military leadership, was met with swift and severe retaliation from Tehran, resulting in significant damage and loss of life in Israel, particularly in the city of Bat Yam. The strikes and counterstrikes mark a critical juncture in the long-simmering tensions between the two nations, driven by Iran’s aggressive posturing and pursuit of nuclear capabilities, which Israel has long viewed as an existential threat.

Israel’s Preemptive Strike: A Response to Iran’s Nuclear Threat

Israel’s decision to launch “Rising Lion” was rooted in years of mounting concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and its broader regional aggression. For decades, Iran has pursued uranium enrichment, with facilities like Natanz and Fordow at the heart of its nuclear infrastructure. By June, Israeli intelligence indicated that Iran had amassed enough enriched uranium to potentially produce up to 15 nuclear weapons within days, a threshold that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as a “clear and present danger to Israel’s very survival.”

Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been coupled with aggressive actions, including direct missile attacks on Israel in April and October 2024, as well as its support for proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which have targeted Israel with thousands of attacks since October 2023. These provocations, combined with Iran’s refusal to comply with international nuclear non-proliferation agreements—confirmed by the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency on June 12, 2025—pushed Israel to act decisively.

The Israeli strikes, involving over 200 fighter jets and covert operations, targeted key nuclear sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as military bases and command centers. The operation also eliminated several of Iran’s top military leaders, including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hossein Salami and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, along with nuclear scientists critical to Iran’s program. Israel’s Defense Ministry described the strikes as “preemptive,” aimed at preventing Iran from achieving nuclear weaponization and neutralizing its ability to launch devastating retaliatory attacks.

Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, justified the operation by citing Iran’s long history of hostility, including its explicit threats of “Death to Israel” and its role in orchestrating attacks through proxies. The strikes were seen as a last resort after failed diplomatic efforts, with the U.S.-led nuclear talks in Oman, scheduled for June 15, 2025, collapsing following Iran’s refusal to negotiate further.

Iran’s Retaliation: Devastation in Bat Yam and Beyond

Iran’s response was immediate and intense, launching what it called “Operation True Promise III” on June 13 and continuing into June 15. Tehran fired over 270 ballistic missiles and more than 100 drones targeting Israeli cities, with significant impacts in Bat Yam, Tel Aviv, and northern regions like Tamra. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed a “bitter and painful” fate for Israel, while Iranian officials labeled the Israeli strikes a “declaration of war.”

In Bat Yam, a coastal city in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, Iranian missiles caused catastrophic damage. A residential building was directly hit, killing at least three people – a 69-year-old woman, an 80-year-old woman, and two children, ages 10 and 8 – and injuring around 100 others. Emergency teams from Israel’s Magen David Adom (MDA) service worked tirelessly to rescue survivors trapped under rubble, with reports indicating that up to 35 people were still missing as of June 15. The strikes left entire neighborhoods in ruins, with images of collapsed buildings and burning vehicles dominating news coverage.

Elsewhere, Iranian missiles penetrated Israel’s sophisticated Iron Dome defense system, striking targets in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Rehovot. In Tamra, a predominantly Palestinian town in northern Israel, a house partially collapsed, killing at least five people. Tel Aviv’s Weizmann Institute, a key research center, was also reportedly hit, though the extent of the damage remains unclear. Overall, Iran’s retaliatory strikes have killed at least 13 people in Israel, including two children in Bat Yam, and injured over 200, with dozens suffering from shrapnel wounds.

Israel’s air defenses, supported by U.S. forces, intercepted many of the incoming missiles and drones, but the sheer volume of Iran’s barrage overwhelmed some systems, leading to significant destruction. The Israeli military urged civilians to remain near shelters, with schools closed and public gatherings banned under a nationwide state of emergency.

The Broader Context: Years of Iranian Aggression

The June 2025 conflict is the culmination of decades of hostility between Israel and Iran, which shifted from covert proxy wars to direct military confrontations. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has positioned itself as a regional adversary to Israel, funding and arming groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people, was seen as a direct result of Iranian support, further escalating tensions.

Iran’s direct attacks on Israel in April and October 2024, involving hundreds of missiles and drones, marked a shift to open warfare. These actions, coupled with Iran’s rapid advancement toward nuclear capability, heightened Israel’s concerns. The U.S. intelligence community, while stating in March 2025 that Iran had not yet authorized a nuclear weapons program, acknowledged Tehran’s enrichment of uranium to 60%, dangerously close to the 90% needed for weapons-grade material. Israel, interpreting its own intelligence differently, believed Iran was months, if not weeks, away from a nuclear breakout.

The failure of diplomatic efforts, including the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, left Israel with few options. President Donald Trump’s attempts to negotiate a new deal faltered, with Iran rejecting a sixth round of talks scheduled for June 15. Israel’s strikes, while unilateral, were seen by some analysts as a calculated move to exploit Iran’s weakened military position following earlier Israeli attacks on its air defenses and missile production sites in October 2024.

Regional and Global Implications

The ongoing exchange of strikes has raised fears of a broader regional war. The U.S., while not directly involved in Israel’s operation, has assisted in intercepting Iranian missiles and has positioned warships, including the USS Thomas Hudner, in the Eastern Mediterranean to protect American interests. President Trump has emphasized a desire for diplomacy but warned of severe consequences if Iran targets U.S. forces or assets.

Iran’s domestic fragility, exacerbated by the loss of key military and scientific figures, has sparked concerns about internal unrest. The strikes have also disrupted global oil markets, with prices surging after an attack on Tehran’s Shahran oil depot. Regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Jordan have expressed concerns about escalation, with Jordan refusing to allow its airspace to be used as a battleground.

Israel’s preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure were driven by a combination of immediate threats and years of Iranian aggression, including its support for proxies and pursuit of nuclear capabilities. While the operation dealt a significant blow to Iran’s nuclear program, it has triggered a fierce retaliatory response. As both nations brace for further escalation, the Middle East stands on the brink of a potentially catastrophic conflict, with global powers watching closely. The path to de-escalation remains uncertain, as Iran vows to continue its retaliation and Israel pledges to eliminate the nuclear threat at all costs.