The U.S. debate over illegal immigration has reached a fever pitch, with recent policy proposals pushing for the mass expulsion of undocumented immigrants. This comes after President Donald Trump signed an executive order early in his second term to expel unauthorized immigrants.
Supporters argue it will safeguard American jobs and ease pressure on public resources. Yet, emerging economic analyses from 2024 suggest that such a move could backfire, delivering a significant blow to the U.S. economy. From labor shortages to fiscal losses, the consequences of removing millions of undocumented workers may ripple far beyond the border.
A Lifeline for Struggling Industries
Undocumented immigrants remain a cornerstone of several U.S. industries, a fact underscored by 2024 research. A report from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) in June 2024 estimated that undocumented workers comprised 4.5% of the U.S. labor force—approximately 7.5 million people—concentrated heavily in agriculture, construction, and hospitality. These sectors, often shunned by native-born workers due to low pay and tough conditions, rely on this labor to stay afloat.
In agriculture, the stakes are particularly high. A 2024 study by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) found that 60% of farmworkers were undocumented, a slight uptick from prior years as labor shortages worsened. The report warned that expelling these workers could slash crop yields by 15-20%, driving food prices up by 6-10% within a year. Farmers, unable to pivot quickly to automation or attract American labor, would face steep losses, threatening both rural economies and national food security.
Construction faces a similar crunch. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported in March 2024 that immigrants, many undocumented, accounted for 27% of the industry’s workforce. With housing demand already outstripping supply, a mass expulsion could delay projects and inflate costs, exacerbating the affordability crisis gripping cities nationwide.
Worsening Labor Shortages
The U.S. labor market tightened further in 2024, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting an unemployment rate of 3.6% and 1.3 job openings per available worker. A September 2024 analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) highlighted that undocumented immigrants fill critical gaps in this strained market, particularly in low-skill roles. Expelling them would shrink the workforce by millions, forcing employers to raise wages to compete for fewer workers—an outcome that could fuel inflation without guaranteeing jobs for Americans.
Small businesses, a backbone of the economy, would feel the pinch acutely. A 2024 survey by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) found that 40% of small firms in labor-intensive sectors relied on undocumented workers. Without them, these businesses might cut output or close, stifling local economic activity.
Fiscal and Consumer Fallout
Undocumented immigrants also prop up the economy through taxes and spending. A 2024 study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) calculated that they contributed $35.2 billion in federal, state, and local taxes, including $15 billion in payroll taxes for programs like Social Security they can’t access. Expelling them would gut this revenue, widening budget deficits at a time when fiscal pressures are mounting.
As consumers, their impact is equally significant. The American Immigration Council’s 2024 report pegged their purchasing power at $105 billion annually, fueling demand in retail, housing, and services. A sudden exodus of millions of consumers could trigger a downturn, hitting states like Texas and California—where undocumented populations are densest—especially hard.
The Staggering Cost of Deportation
Mass expulsion comes with a hefty price tag. A 2024 estimate from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) projected that deporting all undocumented immigrants would cost $500 billion over a decade, factoring in enforcement, detention, and transportation. Meanwhile, the CBO’s 2024 forecast warned that GDP could shrink by 0.5-0.8% annually if the undocumented workforce were halved—a loss of roughly $150 billion per year based on current economic output. This dual hit of rising costs and falling growth could strain an already fragile recovery.
Demographic Time Bomb
The U.S. population continues to age, a trend spotlighted in a 2024 Social Security Administration report predicting that by 2035, retirees will outnumber workers. Undocumented immigrants, typically younger and with higher birth rates, help counter this shift. A 2024 Pew Research Center analysis noted that their removal could accelerate workforce decline, threatening the long-term solvency of entitlement programs and economic dynamism.
Do Americans Want These Jobs?
Proponents of expulsion argue it would free up jobs for citizens, but 2024 data casts doubt on that claim. A July 2024 study in the American Economic Review found that after localized deportation efforts in states like Georgia, native-born workers filled less than 10% of vacated low-wage roles. Employers instead turned to automation or reduced operations, suggesting that expulsion might not deliver the employment boost its advocates envision.
A High-Stakes Gamble
Expelling undocumented immigrants might satisfy calls for stricter border control, but the economic evidence from 2024 paints a sobering picture. Labor shortages, fiscal losses, and enforcement costs could outweigh any short-term gains, leaving the U.S. economy weaker. As policymakers weigh this decision, they face a stark choice: address immigration’s root causes or risk a self-imposed setback that could linger for years.