US President Joe Biden trails Republican frontrunner Donald Trump in five of the six most important battleground states exactly a year before the U.S. election as Americans express doubts about Biden’s age and dissatisfaction toward his handling of the economy, polls released on Sunday showed.
Additional findings from the New York Times and Siena College Polls released on Monday, however, showed that if Trump were to be convicted in criminal charges against him, some of his support in some swing states would erode by about 6% — “enough, potentially, to decide the election.”
Polls measuring the national popular vote have frequently depicted a tight contest between Biden and Trump, but it’s important to remember that U.S. presidential elections are often determined by results in a few pivotal swing states rather than the national popular vote. These swing states, due to their political variability, play a crucial role in deciding the election outcome.
In the 2020 election, Biden’s triumph in several key swing states was critical to his overall victory. These states included Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Notably, all of these states had been won by Trump in the 2016 election, demonstrating their unpredictable nature and significant influence in the electoral process. Biden’s ability to flip these states was a decisive factor in his securing the presidency.
Looking ahead to the next election, the significance of these swing states remains paramount. For Biden to be re-elected, he would likely need to maintain his support in many of these states. The political dynamics in these regions can be complex, with factors such as economic conditions, demographic changes, and local issues playing a role in how citizens vote. Therefore, both parties often focus significant campaign efforts in these states, understanding that their electoral votes are crucial for a win in the Electoral College, which ultimately determines the presidency. The competition in these swing states is expected to be intense, and their outcomes could once again be a decisive factor in determining the next president.
Many people worry about the dangers of a potential Trump victory in the election. They are concerned that Trump, if re-elected, might misuse federal power to target political rivals, possibly invoking the Insurrection Act. This could lead the U.S. to resemble a “banana republic,” according to a law professor quoted by the Washington Post. Furthermore, two New York Times stories revealed Trump’s plans to appoint loyal lawyers to key positions and undermine the independence of federal agencies.
Trump’s unfounded claims of election fraud in 2020, his efforts to stay in office despite his loss, and the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol presented a profound challenge to U.S. elections and democratic norms and many people worry this is nothing compared to what he may try to do once in office for a second term. In such a scenario, Trump will have no qualms setting about to destroy America as we know it, especially as he will be unhindered from worrying about being re-elected. Second-term presidents always have more freedom to carry out policies which may have been more damaging in a first term.
The current media coverage is seen as inadequate in conveying these risks. Instead of focusing on these critical issues, journalists have been more focused on Biden’s age, Trump’s style, and treating the election like a competitive horse race rather than a pivotal democratic event. The key message that needs to be conveyed is that re-electing Trump could jeopardize the democratic process in the United States, including the integrity of elections, voting rights, and the principle of not prosecuting political adversaries without basis.
On the flipside, Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has countered former Representative Liz Cheney’s (R-Wyo.) warnings about the dangers of a second term for Trump. Cheney, in a CBS interview, cautioned that the U.S. might be “sleepwalking into dictatorship” if Trump were re-elected. Graham, however, argued on CNN’s “State of the Union” that Biden’s re-election would be far more detrimental, citing issues such as border security and international relations, particularly mentioning Trump’s influence on Ukraine and terrorist groups.
Graham, a strong Trump supporter, stressed that a Biden re-election could lead to an unrecognizable America and a chaotic world. Cheney, a vocal critic of Trump, has been publicizing her book, emphasizing the threat to American democracy if Trump returns to power. She also expressed concerns about the GOP majority in the House, questioning their commitment to the Constitution.
The recent CNN poll reported by Real Clear Politics indicates a challenging scenario for US Democrats in the 2024 presidential election, with Trump leading Biden by 4% in key states. This has caused concern among Democrats who question whether Biden running for re-election is in the best interest of the country. Biden’s age (81) and low job approval ratings (41%) add to the party’s worries.
However, Democrats have seen electoral successes in governor elections in Ohio, Virginia, and Kentucky, indicating some support. The focus on abortion rights, particularly in Ohio, suggests this issue’s significance for the party.
Regarding presidential approval ratings, historical analysis shows a weak relationship between approval ratings a year before an election and the electoral college outcome. Notably, Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984 won landslide victories despite modest approval ratings the previous year. On the other hand, George W. Bush’s poor ratings in 2007 contributed to the Republican loss in 2008.
What this suggests is that Biden’s current 41% approval rating could predict a 53% vote share in the upcoming election, indicating a possible second term – especially if Trump ends up losing more of his legal battles. Without overemphasizing polls a year before the election, as their predictive power is limited, let’s hope the political landscape improves and Democrats come out on top.