Does Biden Need to Worry About Muslim Electoral Power?
American Muslims and several Democratic party activists, led by Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, say they will work to mobilize millions of Muslim voters to prevent votes and donations for U.S. President Joe Biden unless immediate steps are taken to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.
Does Biden have reason to be concerned? Not really, but…
From Democratic ‘Big Tent’ to Republican Appeal: Tracking the Shift
First, to the facts: there is no dispute that there is a shift of the Muslim population from the ‘big tent‘ Democratic Party (a term coined by Roosevelt for the collaboration of minorities in the 1930s) to the Republicans.
This trend already began in the 2020 elections in comparison to 2016, as I wrote in an article for the Cambridge website titled “How Did Donald Trump Turn the Republican Party into the People’s Party?”, which analyzed voting patterns in the elections. It will continue to strengthen (whether or not it is related to Israel, because the Republicans are not currently providing answers and are still moving) in the 2024 elections, as described in the following October 2023 chart released by the Arab American Institute (AAI).
The Culture War: A Decisive Factor in Muslim Voting Patterns
The main reason why Muslims are switching to the Republican Party is due to the “culture wars”. Many Muslims oppose the progressive values that are popular among Democrats, such as taking a liberal stance on illegal immigration, abortion, and LGBTQ+ rights. They find that the Republicans are more representative of their values, such as family, religion, and other traditional values. Israel is another factor that can influence the vote of Muslims, but it is less significant than the “culture wars”.
Analyzing the Numbers
The Real Impact: Can Muslim Votes Swing Future Elections?
This will be a significant turning point, and it will include results in Congress, in seats that are up for grabs (those that are not clearly Democratic or Republican) mainly.
Can the Muslim public really influence the U.S. presidential elections, as Islamist elements threaten them? Although Islam is the fastest-growing religion in America today, there are only 3.45 million Muslims in the United States
Although Islam is the fastest-growing religion in America today, There are only 3.45 million Muslims in the United States (not Arabs, Muslims, i.e. including African Americans who identify as Muslims and Asian countries such as Indonesians, Malaysians, etc.) which is about 1% of the American population.
When analyzing World Population Review‘s 2020 election map, by presenting the election results versus the size of the Muslim population by state, the following patterns emerge:
First, the state of Michigan, which is always mentioned by experts as a swing state with a large Muslim population. As can be seen on the map, there are about 250,000 Muslims in the state of Michigan, but when Biden won by a margin of 154,000 votes over Trump, a shift of 5% or even 20% of eligible voters would only add 30-40,000 votes, compared to a similar decrease on the Democratic side, and reach half the gap. Therefore, such a scenario in a state like Michigan is of low to non-existent probability.
The second state with a large concentration of Muslims is Pennsylvania, with about 150,000, but the difference between Biden and Trump was over 61,000 votes, so this scenario, like Michigan, is low to non-existent.
The third relevant state is Georgia, where approximately 124,000 Muslims live, with a difference of about 12,000 votes to Biden in 2020. In a specific scenario, this could be relevant.
The fourth state is Arizona, where even fewer Muslims live, with a population of about 109,000, compared to a gap for Biden of 10,500 votes. Again, this is a relevant but low relative scenario.
In other swing states, there are under 70,000 Muslims. As can be seen, the peripheral influence of over 5% Muslim voters can only be relevant in relatively extreme scenarios, and even then, it is considered a risk primarily for states like Georgia and Arizona.
The Role of Muslim Donations in Democratic Fundraising
Now, let’s talk about campaign donations. Was this the second threat from Congress and Muslim representatives?
Jews are responsible for approximately 50% of the total funds collected by the Democratic Party.
Although I searched for data on the amount of funds transferred as Muslim donations, I couldn’t find specific figures to serve as an anchor point. Therefore, it would be interesting to know how much campaign funding Representatives Tlaib and Ilhan Omar, both of whom who are Muslim and serve in Congress, were able to secure.
In the 2020 elections, Omar managed to raise around $6 million dollars. Tlaib, on the other hand, raised only $4 million.
Of the “Squad” (a name that started as a derogatory name by the previous House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and became a representative name for the group that also includes Congresswomen Cori Bush and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) that closes the top ten of the fundraisers, Cortez raised $12 million. And when it comes to money and fundraising, less than 24 hours after Tlaib’s threat to Biden, the “super PAC” of the Mainstream Democrats PAC, with the backing of LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, announced that they are on their way to launching a campaign to remove two progressive members of Congress, Tlaib and Bush.
The Growing Muslim Influence in American Politics
However, the distant future is Muslim. According to the Pew Research Center, Islam will be the second largest religion in America, with an estimated eight million Americans in 2040. Indeed, Muslims, who are mostly second and third generation, are beginning (just as Jews began to rise to politics in post-WWII) to demand its share of the pie.
In 2021, for the first time, the pro-Palestinian umbrella organization in Washington, D.C. was established under the name AJP (Americans for Justice in Palestine), a lobby group that advocates congress and the administration with the same methods as the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby group has done since the early 50s.
Assessing the Immediate and Future Political Impacts on Biden’s Presidency
Is Biden at immediate risk from shifting voter allegiances in the 2024 elections? It appears unlikely. The probability of swing states pivoting away is minimal, and the prospect of a significant financial impact is even less probable. Looking toward the horizon, however, it’s clear that Muslim Americans are poised to wield greater political clout. The real intrigue lies in which political faction they will align with. My projection is that their influence will gravitate towards the religious and conservative ideals traditionally upheld by the Republican Party.
About the author
The author is a Ph.D. in American Political history and International Affairs, and a researcher of American politics, specializing in research on Grassroots lobbies groups and their influence on Israel-U.S. relations. A fellow of the Haikin Chair in Geo-Strategy, and a senior researcher at the Haifa Laboratory for Religious Studies at the University of Haifa, Israel. Host and owner of the podcast “America Baby”.