North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s visit to Russia in a highly anticipated meeting with President Vladimir Putin has sparked Western concerns about a potential arms deal for Moscow’s war in Ukraine, according to the Associated Press.
They met in the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok, where Putin arrived Monday to attend the Eastern Economic Forum that ran through Wednesday, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.
The international forum is held each year in Vladivostok, Russia, for the purpose of encouraging foreign investment in the Russian Far East. But now, as Moscow wages war in Ukraine, reinforces its relationship with Beijing and seeks some form of alliance with Pyongyang, other countries normally glad to invest in Russia are now reticent to do so.
The budding relationship between Putin and Kim has percolated over the last few months, growing into this week’s meeting. According to a report in Al Jazeera, Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea and met with Kim in July. Kim and Putin also exchanged letters last month vowing to bolster relations between their two countries.
“I am convinced that thanks to our joint efforts we will continue to strengthen … bilateral ties on all fronts,” Putin allegedly said in the letter.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said during a press briefing Sep. 5 that while he couldn’t speculate on Kim’s motives, he warned that “providing weapons to Russia for use on the battlefield to attack grain silos and the heating infrastructure of major cities as we head into winter to try to conquer territory that belongs to another sovereign nation — this is not going to reflect well on North Korea, and they will pay a price for this in the international community.”
“We have also imposed sanctions — specific, targeted sanctions to try to disrupt any effort to use North Korea as a conduit or as a source for weapons going to Russia,” he added.
On Tuesday, US Department of State spokesperson Vedant Patel also warned North Korea against providing weapons to Russia, telling reporters that Moscow’s turn to Pyongyang for arms shows the effectiveness of US sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.
“Russia has been forced to search desperately around the world for weapons it can use in its war in Ukraine because of our sanctions and export controls and the effects that those have had,” Patel said.
According to an NBC report, “arms negotiations between North Korea and Russia were ‘actively advancing,’ and Kim and Putin had exchanged letters pledging to increase their cooperation. Should Pyongyang and Moscow reach any arm deals, they would violate multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions.”
A report in Time magazine notes that according to analysts, as part of an arms deal, North Korea “may ask for food, aid, and other raw materials that are scarce in the poverty-stricken nation, not to mention advanced weaponry for its nuclear-capable ballistic missile program.”
A Russia-North Korea partnership is concerning since it places two rogue nations together and they are both desperate as sanctions tighten and reduce their ability to function as a normal state would. Also, as Patel mentioned, the fact that Putin is seeking help from Kim is the sign of a desperate man grasping at straws.
The problem is that leaders of autocratic countries, when backed into a corner, could act irrationally. Western nations should be concerned that Putin may decide to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine for example if he feels trapped with no way out.
Diplomacy is important and the Biden administration, together with the UK, Germany, France, and other countries, should double their efforts to ensure Putin does not reach his breaking point and act out of desperation.
Sun Tzu, the famed philosopher, and author of “The Art of War” famously wrote that when surrounding an enemy, “leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.”