Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has dissolved parliament and called for early elections on May 18, 2025, following the collapse of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s center-right minority government. This marks the country’s third early election in just over three years.
This is a genuine crisis for Portugal, as each successive short-lived government struggles to implement long-term policies or address ongoing economic challenges. Normal parliamentary terms last four years, but Portugal hasn’t completed a full term since before 2022.
What triggered the Government’s collapse
The immediate catalyst for this dissolution came when Montenegro’s government lost a parliamentary confidence vote on Wednesday. In parliamentary systems, this vote determines whether the legislature still supports the government’s leadership. When a government loses such a vote, as Montenegro’s did, it typically must resign or face new elections.
In a televised address to the nation, President Rebelo de Sousa described the situation as an “unexpected” political development. “Why did the Government announce and present the motion of confidence and the opposition parties reject it?” questioned the president, highlighting the perplexing nature of the government’s decision to call for a confidence vote it was likely to lose.
The scandal behind the crisis
The government’s instability has been exacerbated by the Spinumviva scandal involving Prime Minister Montenegro. This controversy centers around a company initially owned by Montenegro, later transferred to his wife, and now owned by his sons. The scandal involves potential conflicts of interest in government contracts, particularly with the Solverde casino group, whose state license is currently up for renewal.
President Rebelo de Sousa specifically criticized the ethical and moral issues surrounding these arrangements, suggesting they undermined public trust in the government. The scandal appears to have weakened Montenegro’s position significantly before the confidence vote was called.
What happens next: the path to elections
Despite the government’s collapse, Montenegro’s Social Democratic Party continues to support him, confirming he will lead the party in the upcoming election. They’ve placed blame for the crisis squarely on opposition parties, though political analysts suggest Montenegro’s actions contributed significantly to the government’s downfall.
Recent opinion polls show the main opposition Socialist Party with a slight lead over Montenegro’s alliance, though many surveys indicate the two parties running neck-and-neck at approximately 30% support each. This suggests the upcoming election may produce results similar to last year’s, potentially extending the political deadlock rather than resolving it.
The decision to dissolve parliament followed a meeting of the Council of State at the President’s official residence, Belém Palace. The Council unanimously agreed to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic under Article 145(a) of the Constitution.
According to Portugal’s electoral law, the President must schedule legislative elections at least 55 days following parliament’s dissolution. The May 18 election date provides 65 days for campaigning, which President Rebelo de Sousa hopes will feature a “clear, dignified debate,” despite acknowledging that the Spinumviva scandal will inevitably dominate discussions.
This marks the third time during President Rebelo de Sousa’s second term that he has exercised his constitutional right to dissolve parliament. The first occurred in 2022 when parliament rejected the government’s proposed State Budget. The second followed Prime Minister António Costa’s resignation amid the “Operation Influencer” corruption investigation.