US President Joe Biden is in trouble – and that’s according to Democrats.
The recent victories for abortion rights advocates, particularly in right-leaning Ohio and Kentucky, are a good sign for Democrats going into 2024. A number of Democratic incumbents and candidates have signaled that they plan to campaign on the issue next year, according to Julia Manchester at The Hill.
Manchester adds, “President Biden and his allies were certainly feeling enthusiastic following Tuesday’s election night results.
Democrats and abortion rights advocates notched a string of electoral victories, including in conservative Ohio and Kentucky, an early signal that reproductive rights remain a potent issue for Democrats ahead of the 2024 presidential race.
In Ohio, voters approved a constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights.
“Across the country tonight, democracy won and MAGA lost. Voters vote. Polls don’t. Now let’s go win next year,” read a recent tweet from Biden’s campaign account on X, the website formerly known as Twitter.
But Biden still faces serious questions about his electoral strength and leadership abilities heading into a possible election rematch with former President Donald Trump. A CNN poll shows Trump leading Biden 49 percent to 45 percent among registered voters. A New York Times and Siena College poll showed Trump leading Biden in the critical swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
US Democrats are deeply concerned by this polling which suggests that voters intend to pick Trump ahead of Biden in some key states in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump’s 4% lead over Biden is statistically significant.
One concern about Biden is his age (81), but also his poor job approval ratings from the American public relating to his work as president. His average approval ratings reported by Real Clear Politics calculated from several different polls is currently 41%. By contrast, an average of 56% of respondents in these polls disapproved of his performance.
This means just one thing: Biden is in trouble and if he intends to make it to a second term, he will need some serious help getting his polling numbers up.
As for Republicans, Trump remains the strong favorite to win the Republican presidential nomination. He holds a wide lead in early national polls and endorsement points, both of which have historically been predictive of the eventual primary winner. Trump also leads, albeit by smaller margins, in polls of the early primary states, like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, according to political analysis site fivethirtyeight.
Republican voters thought former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley turned in the strongest debate performance during the third Republican presidential debate, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy apparently rubbed many voters the wrong way. But when it comes to whom they might vote for, the debate doesn’t seem to have changed many peoples’ minds.
Thus, while Trump leads Biden in five of six key battleground states, the favorability ratings as of this writing stand at 40.5 for Biden and 40.2 for Trump. Ron DeSantis stands at 35.4 and Nikki Haley at 33.5.
The latest updates on the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, according to political website fivethirtyeight, shows that Trump leads at 44.7% – far ahead of his Republican challengers – the closest being Haley at 18.9%. The national polls place Trump at 59.4% while DeSantis stands at 13.8% and Haley at 9.3%.
Trump holds a 56% favorability among Republicans, with DeSantis at 39%, Haley 24%, and Ramaswamy 20%.
The Iowa polls have Trump leading at 44.9%, DeSantis at 18%, Haley at 14.2%, and Ramaswamy at 4.8%.
What all these polls demonstrate is a clear and significant Trump lead over all other candidates.
But for Trump to beat Biden, it will take much more, and Biden can yet become the serious challenger the Democrats still have faith he can be.