The recent ousting of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad marks a pivotal shift in the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape, with profound implications for Syria and the broader region. After 13 years of civil war, opposition forces, notably Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), launched a decisive offensive that swiftly captured key cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, leading to the collapse of Assad’s 24-year regime.
Implications for Syria
The removal of Assad’s regime, notorious for its brutal tactics and human rights violations, offers a potential pathway toward rebuilding and democratization. However, the ascent of HTS, an Islamist group with a history of extremism, raises concerns about the future governance of Syria. While HTS claims to have moderated its stance, its leadership’s capacity to establish a stable and inclusive government remains uncertain.
Regional Dynamics and Turkey’s Role
Turkey emerges as a significant beneficiary of Assad’s downfall. Having supported Syrian opposition groups throughout the civil war, Ankara is now positioned to exert considerable influence over Syria’s future trajectory. This development aligns with Turkey’s strategic interests, particularly in countering Kurdish autonomy movements along its border. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration may leverage this opportunity to facilitate the repatriation of millions of Syrian refugees residing in Turkey, addressing domestic pressures and reshaping regional alliances.
Diminished Influence of Iran and Russia
The collapse of Assad’s regime deals a substantial blow to Iran’s regional strategy, often referred to as the “ring of fire” encircling Israel. Syria has been a critical conduit for Iranian support to proxy groups like Hezbollah. The regime’s fall disrupts this axis, weakening Iran’s capacity to project power and influence across the Levant.
Similarly, Russia’s standing in the Middle East faces challenges. Moscow’s military intervention in 2015 was instrumental in sustaining Assad’s rule, securing Russia’s strategic interests, including the Hemeimeem air base and the Tartus naval facility. Assad’s ouster, culminating in his flight to Moscow where he was granted asylum, underscores Russia’s diminished leverage and raises questions about the future of its military presence in Syria.
Prospects for Stability
While the end of Assad’s authoritarian rule is welcomed by many, Syria’s path to stability is fraught with challenges. The potential for power vacuums, resurgence of extremist factions, and sectarian tensions poses risks of further conflict. The international community’s engagement will be crucial in supporting a transition that fosters inclusive governance and reconstruction, aiming to prevent Syria from descending into renewed chaos.
Assad’s removal signifies a transformative moment for Syria and the Middle East. Turkey’s enhanced influence, coupled with the waning presence of Iran and Russia, reshapes regional dynamics. However, the journey toward a peaceful and democratic Syria remains complex, necessitating concerted efforts from both domestic actors and the international community to navigate the challenges ahead.