The recent developments in the Chinese military involve a significant reshuffle and clear-out of its top brass. This move, led by China’s leader Xi Jinping, is part of an ongoing effort allegedly to curb corruption and transform the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a world-class fighting force, but some analysts believe this is just a cover for China’s preparation for a war with the United States.
Admiral Dong Jun, the former head of the Chinese navy, has been promoted to defense minister. This follows the disappearance of the previous defense minister, Li Shangfu, who was likely involved in a corruption probe. Additionally, a dozen generals and senior military enterprise executives were removed from key political positions.
The reshuffle is part of a broader probe into military corruption focusing on weapons procurement and the rocket force responsible for China’s missile and nuclear arsenals. High-ranking officials have been replaced, hinting at the severity of the investigation.
Experts believe these changes won’t significantly alter China’s military modernization program or its stance towards the United States. The role of the defense minister in China is seen as largely ceremonial, with strategic decisions coming from the Central Military Commission, headed by Xi Jinping.
Dong Jun’s appointment aligns with China’s shift towards prioritizing maritime power, essential for dominance in the Indo-Pacific and for asserting sovereignty claims, especially over Taiwan.
Dong’s role is expected to continue the recent renewal of military dialogue between China and the U.S. However, the core dynamics of the relationship are likely to remain unchanged. China’s increasing focus on the South China Sea suggests ongoing military competition with the U.S. and its allies.
Beijing’s aggressive military tactics, especially around Taiwan and in the South China Sea, continue to create tensions with neighboring countries and the U.S., complicating efforts to ease hostilities.
This reshuffle in the Chinese military is part of Xi Jinping’s broader strategy to combat corruption and enhance the PLA’s capabilities, with a particular emphasis on maritime power. While it represents a significant shake-up, the fundamental aspects of China’s military strategy and its relations with the U.S. are expected to remain largely consistent.
Since the beginning of the year, there has been a notable shift in the Chinese military under Xi Jinping’s leadership, characterized by the purging of officers opposed to war. This move is perceived as preparation for potential conflict, aligning with Xi’s frequent discussions about war and the country’s significant military buildup, the largest since World War II. In addition to making China resistant to sanctions and stockpiling commodities, there is a concerted effort to prepare for possible strikes against America and to mobilize civilians, with military indoctrination beginning in the early years of school.
The reasoning behind Xi’s aggressive stance appears to be internal. His Maoist-inspired policies, favoring state over private and foreign businesses, have exacerbated China’s economic challenges, leading to speculation that an external crisis could unite and distract the populace. China’s military doctrine now includes threats of nuclear weapon use against the United States, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan, which Beijing considers its territory. U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has stated that China is preparing for war, specifically with the United States, a view contrasted by President Joe Biden’s opinion that China’s economic troubles make a Taiwan invasion less likely. However, some believe China’s internal issues might drive Xi to increased aggression.
Xi has instructed the Chinese military to accelerate its modernization and combat readiness, a directive following intensified military exercises. Reports from various war games suggest the U.S. may be unprepared for a conflict with China, leading Kendall to emphasize the need for the U.S. Air and Space Forces to increase their capabilities, particularly in deterring a Taiwan invasion. Speaking on the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Kendall highlighted the necessity to be ready for a type of war the modern world has not experienced.
This growing concern about China’s military ambitions, driven by internal challenges and Xi’s policies, poses significant implications for global security, especially concerning relations with the U.S. and Taiwan. It is time to take China seriously as it prepares for war with the U.S.
America cannot stand by hoping deterrence will be effective. Now is the time to prepare for war.